Weather, Air Pollution, and COVID-19 Transmission

Introduction

Despite multiple studies, there is currently limited agreement on the impact of weather conditions on transmission rates of COVID-19. We assembled one of the largest datasets of COVID-19 infection and weather and analyzed the impact of weather on the transmission of the virus across 3,739 global locations. For details on the methodology, data, and estimated statistical models, see our working paper.

We have developed interactive figures to visualize evidence-based projections of the impact of weather on the potential transmission rate of COVID-19 from May 1, 2020 to April 30, 2021, using 2019-2020 weather data for each location.

See also interactive visualizations based on our results in The New York Times.

Projecting How Weather and Air Pollutants Impact Transmission Rate

Despite multiple studies, there is currently limited agreement on the impact of weather conditions on transmission rates of COVID-19. We assembled one of the largest datasets of COVID-19 infection and weather and analyzed the impact of weather on the transmission of the virus across 3,739 global locations. For details on the methodology, data, and estimated statistical models, see our working paper.

We have developed interactive figures to visualize evidence-based projections of the impact of weather on the potential transmission rate of COVID-19 from May 1, 2020 to April 30, 2021, using 2019-2020 weather data for each location.

See also interactive visualizations based on our results in The New York Times.

Our projections suggest warmer temperature and moderate outdoor UV exposure may offer a modest reduction in reproductive number; however, upcoming changes in weather alone will NOT be enough to fully contain the transmission of COVID-19.

Important Note: CRW numbers do NOT reflect the total risks of COVID-19 across different locations, rather, only the portion of the risk due to weather and air pollutants. Beyond weather, those risks depend on population density, cultural practices, individual and policy responses, and a host of other factors not included in our projections (but controlled for in our estimation using fixed effects and location-specific trends). Therefore, comparisons between locations are only informative about the relative impact of weather on transmission, keeping everything else constant.